tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 95%

  1. 06:10 IAD → 07:27 ORD
    UA 2070 · United · 2h 17m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:35 ORD → 11:59 DAY
    AA 3786 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 24m · 100% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 08m layover.
Arrives on time95%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (100%).
Total trip5h 49mIAD 06:10 to DAY 11:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.