tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 13:55 SEA → 20:21 ORD
    UA 2101 · United · 4h 26m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 00:53 EWR +1 day
    UA 1209 · United · 2h 23m · 68% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 58mSEA 13:55 to EWR 00:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.