Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Miami → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 30%
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16:10 MIA → 18:53 ORDUA 2106 · United · 3h 43m · 59% on time, 0.6% cancelled
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1h 11m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:04 ORD → 22:57 SFOUA 1495 · United · 4h 53m · 45% on time, 1.4% cancelled
Total trip 9h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip9h 47mMIA 16:10 to SFO 22:57, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.