tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Charleston via Dulles: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:35 BNA → 16:28 IAD
    UA 2125 · United · 1h 53m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 IAD → 19:07 CHS
    UA 4310 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 52m · 67% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 32mBNA 13:35 to CHS 19:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.