tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → New York via Dulles: arrives on time 39%

  1. 13:35 BNA → 16:28 IAD
    UA 2125 · United · 1h 53m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 IAD → 18:42 LGA
    UA 4077 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 27m · 77% on time, 13.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (13.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 07mBNA 13:35 to LGA 18:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.