tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Providence via Dulles: arrives on time 54%

  1. 13:35 BNA → 16:28 IAD
    UA 2125 · United · 1h 53m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 IAD → 18:59 PVD
    UA 6112 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 39m · 80% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 24mBNA 13:35 to PVD 18:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.