tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Chicago via Newark: arrives on time 57%

  1. 22:54 SMF → 07:06 EWR
    UA 2132 · United · 5h 12m · 77% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:59 EWR → 09:43 ORD +1 day
    UA 2488 · United · 2h 44m · 88% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip8h 49mSMF 22:54 to ORD 09:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.