tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 64%

  1. 13:00 IAD → 15:09 LAS
    UA 2156 · United · 5h 09m · 91% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 01m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:10 LAS → 18:45 OAK
    WN 2286 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 01m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip8h 45mIAD 13:00 to OAK 18:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.