tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Wilmington via Newark: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:57 ORD → 19:33 EWR
    UA 2171 · United · 2h 36m · 27% on time, 16.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:53 EWR → 23:44 ILM
    UA 3592 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 51m · 78% on time, 16.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 95 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (16.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (16.9% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 47mORD 15:57 to ILM 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.