Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Chicago → Syracuse via Dulles: arrives on time 43%
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18:12 ORD → 21:22 IADUA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
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1h 03m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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22:25 IAD → 23:59 SYRUA 4856 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 34m · 79% on time, 6.7% cancelled
Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 47mORD 18:12 to SYR 23:59, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.