tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Harrisburg via Dulles: arrives on time 47%

  1. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:26 IAD → 23:30 MDT
    UA 4964 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 04m · 81% on time, 3.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (3.7% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip4h 18mORD 18:12 to MDT 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.