tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Raleigh/Durham via Dulles: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 IAD → 23:44 RDU
    UA 2382 · United · 1h 19m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 32mORD 18:12 to RDU 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.