tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Detroit via Dulles: arrives on time 24%

  1. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 IAD → 23:51 DTW
    UA 3995 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 41m · 62% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 39mORD 18:12 to DTW 23:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.