tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Hebron via Dulles: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:17 IAD → 23:59 CVG
    UA 3521 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 70% on time, 10.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (10.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 47mORD 18:12 to CVG 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.