tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Pittsburgh via Dulles: arrives on time 51%

  1. 18:12 ORD → 21:22 IAD
    UA 2202 · United · 2h 10m · 57% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 IAD → 23:36 PIT
    UA 3540 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 06m · 80% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 24mORD 18:12 to PIT 23:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.