tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 11:38 PHL → 13:06 ORD
    UA 2207 · United · 2h 28m · 81% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:55 ORD → 16:45 ROC
    UA 1239 · United · 1h 50m · 71% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 07mPHL 11:38 to ROC 16:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.