tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 11:38 PHL → 13:06 ORD
    UA 2207 · United · 2h 28m · 81% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:00 ORD → 17:12 DCA
    UA 1314 · United · 2h 12m · 56% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 34mPHL 11:38 to DCA 17:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.