tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Harrisburg via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 11:38 PHL → 13:06 ORD
    UA 2207 · United · 2h 28m · 81% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:57 ORD → 16:56 MDT
    UA 1746 · United · 1h 59m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 18mPHL 11:38 to MDT 16:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.