tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 77%

  1. 06:00 RIC → 07:23 ORD
    UA 224 · United · 2h 23m · 82% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 37m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 11:00 ORD → 14:38 JFK
    AA 4356 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 38m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 127 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 37m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 38mRIC 06:00 to JFK 14:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.