Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Newark via San Francisco: arrives on time 27%

  1. 19:05 SEA → 21:21 SFO
    UA 2241 · United · 2h 16m · 22% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 SFO → 07:00 EWR +1 day
    UA 1141 · United · 5h 25m · 83% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 55mSEA 19:05 to EWR 07:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.