tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Rapid City via Denver: arrives on time 34%

  1. 16:51 MSP → 18:17 DEN
    UA 2272 · United · 2h 26m · 65% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 DEN → 20:38 RAP
    UA 5608 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 23m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 47mMSP 16:51 to RAP 20:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.