tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Sacramento via Los Angeles: arrives on time 60%

  1. 17:48 IAD → 20:21 LAX
    UA 2276 · United · 5h 33m · 71% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 LAX → 22:56 SMF
    UA 5430 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 13 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip8h 08mIAD 17:48 to SMF 22:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.