tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Los Angeles: arrives on time 65%

  1. 17:48 IAD → 20:21 LAX
    UA 2276 · United · 5h 33m · 71% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 LAX → 22:59 PHX
    UA 5458 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip8h 11mIAD 17:48 to PHX 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.