tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Santa Barbara via Los Angeles: arrives on time 58%

  1. 20:31 LAS → 21:55 LAX
    UA 2282 · United · 1h 24m · 77% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:44 LAX → 23:44 SBA
    UA 4796 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 00m · 88% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 3h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip3h 13mLAS 20:31 to SBA 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.