Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
New York → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 14%
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17:25 LGA → 19:12 ORDUA 2299 · United · 2h 47m · 49% on time, 4.8% cancelled
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52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:04 ORD → 22:57 SFOUA 1495 · United · 4h 53m · 45% on time, 1.4% cancelled
Total trip 8h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip8h 32mLGA 17:25 to SFO 22:57, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.