tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Birmingham via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:32 MIA → 20:13 ORD
    UA 2311 · United · 3h 41m · 34% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:34 BHM
    UA 4447 · United, flown by GoJet · 2h 04m · 79% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip7h 02mMIA 17:32 to BHM 23:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.