tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Denver via San Francisco: arrives on time 37%

  1. 08:00 RNO → 09:15 SFO
    UA 2317 · United · 1h 15m · 20% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 SFO → 14:23 DEN
    UA 1604 · United · 2h 43m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 23mRNO 08:00 to DEN 14:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.