Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
San Francisco → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 30%
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12:00 SFO → 18:35 ORDUA 2317 · United · 4h 35m · 50% on time, 2.8% cancelled
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1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:45 ORD → 22:54 DCAUA 2160 · United · 2h 09m · 56% on time, 5.0% cancelled
Total trip 7h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 54mSFO 12:00 to DCA 22:54, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.