tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Houston via Newark: arrives on time 48%

  1. 15:14 RDU → 17:00 EWR
    UA 2415 · United · 1h 46m · 76% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:54 EWR → 20:55 IAH
    UA 2782 · United · 4h 01m · 69% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 41mRDU 15:14 to IAH 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.