tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 10:37 SNA → 16:53 ORD
    UA 2426 · United · 4h 16m · 79% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 ORD → 20:22 DTW
    UA 5232 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 56% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 45mSNA 10:37 to DTW 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.