tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Chicago via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:30 EWR → 16:11 RDU
    UA 2485 · United · 1h 41m · 69% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:12 RDU → 18:42 ORD
    UA 630 · United · 2h 30m · 45% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 12mEWR 14:30 to ORD 18:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.