tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:42 IAD → 18:50 ORD
    UA 2497 · United · 2h 08m · 48% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 ORD → 22:57 SFO
    UA 1495 · United · 4h 53m · 45% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip8h 15mIAD 17:42 to SFO 22:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.