tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Kansas City via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:42 IAD → 18:50 ORD
    UA 2497 · United · 2h 08m · 48% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 ORD → 21:54 MCI
    UA 1851 · United · 1h 49m · 57% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 12mIAD 17:42 to MCI 21:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.