Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Dulles → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 40%
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17:42 IAD → 18:50 ORDUA 2497 · United · 2h 08m · 48% on time, 1.1% cancelled
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1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:05 ORD → 22:56 SEAUA 2820 · United · 4h 51m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled
Total trip 8h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip8h 14mIAD 17:42 to SEA 22:56, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.