Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Dulles → Santa Ana via Chicago: arrives on time 35%
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17:42 IAD → 18:50 ORDUA 2497 · United · 2h 08m · 48% on time, 1.1% cancelled
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55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:45 ORD → 22:19 SNAUA 308 · United · 4h 34m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled
Total trip 7h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 37mIAD 17:42 to SNA 22:19, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.