Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Dulles → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 57%
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17:42 IAD → 18:50 ORDUA 2497 · United · 2h 08m · 48% on time, 1.1% cancelled
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1h 40m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:30 ORD → 22:27 PHXUA 602 · United · 3h 57m · 70% on time, 1.9% cancelled
Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 45mIAD 17:42 to PHX 22:27, layover included
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.