tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Kansas City via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:15 EWR → 20:10 ORD
    UA 254 · United · 2h 55m · 44% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 23:17 MCI
    UA 4723 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 52m · 59% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 02mEWR 18:15 to MCI 23:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.