tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Grand Rapids via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:15 EWR → 20:10 ORD
    UA 254 · United · 2h 55m · 44% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 ORD → 23:57 GRR
    UA 5303 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 17m · 67% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 42mEWR 18:15 to GRR 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.