tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:15 EWR → 20:10 ORD
    UA 254 · United · 2h 55m · 44% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 ORD → 23:10 MSP
    UA 1131 · United · 1h 42m · 59% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 55mEWR 18:15 to MSP 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.