tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 17%

  1. 14:18 TVC → 14:45 ORD
    UA 2605 · United · 1h 27m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:57 ORD → 19:33 EWR
    UA 2171 · United · 2h 36m · 27% on time, 16.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (16.1% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip5h 15mTVC 14:18 to EWR 19:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.