tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 07:15 TUL → 09:17 ORD
    UA 2653 · United · 2h 02m · 90% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:03 ORD → 13:26 LGA
    UA 669 · United · 2h 23m · 82% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 11mTUL 07:15 to LGA 13:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.