tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Memphis via Newark: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:22 MIA → 20:37 EWR
    UA 2691 · United · 3h 15m · 56% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:26 EWR → 23:30 MEM
    UA 3563 · United, flown by Republic · 3h 04m · 79% on time, 15.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (15.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip7h 08mMIA 17:22 to MEM 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.