tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Bozeman via Los Angeles: arrives on time 58%

  1. 09:15 EWR → 11:53 LAX
    UA 2692 · United · 5h 38m · 69% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:50 LAX → 16:24 BZN
    UA 2212 · United · 2h 34m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip9h 09mEWR 09:15 to BZN 16:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.