tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Dulles via Chicago: arrives on time 49%

  1. 14:17 SMF → 20:33 ORD
    UA 2766 · United · 4h 16m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 ORD → 00:45 IAD +1 day
    UA 2766 · United · 2h 05m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip7h 28mSMF 14:17 to IAD 00:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.