tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 14:17 SMF → 20:33 ORD
    UA 2766 · United · 4h 16m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 00:28 BWI +1 day
    UA 675 · United · 2h 08m · 60% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 11mSMF 14:17 to BWI 00:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.