tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Dulles via Tampa: arrives on time 50%

  1. 15:07 EWR → 18:07 TPA
    UA 2777 · United · 3h 00m · 77% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:57 TPA → 21:30 IAD
    UA 1370 · United · 2h 33m · 78% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 23mEWR 15:07 to IAD 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.