tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Milwaukee via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:45 EWR → 16:28 ORD
    UA 2788 · United · 2h 43m · 50% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 ORD → 18:48 MKE
    UA 5555 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 03m · 52% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 03mEWR 14:45 to MKE 18:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.