tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 14:45 EWR → 16:28 ORD
    UA 2788 · United · 2h 43m · 50% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:29 ORD → 21:22 ROC
    UA 1568 · United · 1h 53m · 63% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 76 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 01m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 37mEWR 14:45 to ROC 21:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.