tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:16 MCI → 17:05 ORD
    UA 2792 · United · 1h 49m · 71% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 ORD → 21:49 TPA
    UA 2865 · United · 2h 53m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 33mMCI 15:16 to TPA 21:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.