tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Columbia via Dulles: arrives on time 53%

  1. 13:30 ORD → 16:30 IAD
    UA 2794 · United · 2h 00m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:21 IAD → 19:09 CAE
    UA 4364 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 48m · 82% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 39mORD 13:30 to CAE 19:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.